Real Estate Market Update ~ March 2014

Stronger home sales should follow a tepid spring

 

NEW YORK – April 23, 2014 – Despite weak underlying consumer momentum this spring, U.S. housing should improve later in 2014 due to faster economic growth, according to Fitch Ratings in the latest edition of the "Chalk Line."

 

"Comparisons have been a challenge so far this year, with most housing metrics falling short of expectations from a year ago," said Robert Curran, managing director and lead homebuilding analyst for Fitch Ratings. "Though the severe winter throughout much of North America has restrained some housing activity, buyer sensitivity to home prices and finance rates and the slowing of job growth at year-end is resulting in diminished consumer momentum."

 

That said, Fitch expects stable ratings for most issuers within the homebuilding sector in 2014, reflecting a continued, moderate cyclical improvement in overall construction activity as the year progresses. There is even potential for a few upgrades among some homebuilders.

Housing should improve in 2014 due to faster economic growth and some acceleration in job growth, despite somewhat higher interest rates, as well as more measured home price inflation.

However, Fitch is tapering its year-end forecast to reflect a subpar spring selling season. Single-family starts are now projected to improve 15 percent to 710,000 as multifamily volume grows about 9 percent to 335,000.

 

Overall, Fitch predicts that total starts this year should top one million. Fitch projects new home sales will increase about 16 percent to 500,000 and existing home sales to remain flat at 5.10 million. This is largely due to fewer distressed homes for sale. New home price inflation should moderate in 2014, at least partially because of higher interest rates. Average and median new home prices should rise about 3.5 percent in 2014.

 

© 2014 Florida Realtors®

How does Nassau County compare?

Single family home sales for the month of March were up 28.6% over last year.  Cash sales were up 16% and pending sales up 14%.  Contrary to last years trend, new homes listed (inventory) rose 23.9% over 2013 and the months supply of inventory (turnover) dropped from 9.0 months to 6.8 months.  The median days a home stays on the market also fell 17% from 74 days to 61 days.
Of the 90 closed sales in March, the majority fell in the $300,000 - $399,999 price range.  The average sale price compared to March 2013 stayed very close to the same at $250,226 versus $247,815.

With a 14% increase in pending sales and improved weather, these positive trends should continue throughout the 2nd quarter.

Featured Listing

16 Marsh Creek Road

4 bedroom / 3 bath / 2845 Square Feet

 

This fabulous home captures the essence of Amelia Island Plantation! Nestled on a large lot overlooking the 13th hole of Oak Marsh and surrounded by lush landscaping, this home offers wonderful outdoor space with a large deck and built-in grill. Spacious floor plan with lots of windows and skylights to bring the outdoors in. Huge living room with stone fireplace, vaulted ceiling and bamboo floors opens to Florida room with floor-to-ceiling windows. Large kitchen and dining room are inviting and perfect for gatherings. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances, double ovens, granite counter...tops. Dining room has coffered ceiling and great garden/golf views. Large master suite with beautiful bath. Two guest bedrooms on north wing with renovated bath. 4th bedroom on south wing is currently used as an office and opens to screened porch. Large, functional laundry room could be used as studio. Plantation shutters, built-in stereo sound system, and drive-through garage. Home is beautifully maintained inside & out! Short bike ride to beach and all Omni/Amelia Island Plantation amenities.        

Median Sales Price up 39.4%

Amelia Island/Nassau County, FL – July 2012

A few short years ago, housing was considered a headwind to economic recovery. Today, housing is seen as a tailwind to a stalling economy. For the first time since 2005, housing is on track for contributing positively to national GDP in 2012. That can occur either by way of direct residential investment or through remodeling and other ancillary services. Watch for signs of sustained tailwinds in a variety of indicators including market times, seller concessions, prices and absorption rates.

Though many home shoppers who assume they are still in a buyer's market find it hard to believe, one of the sobering fundamentals shaping real estate this summer is shrinking inventory. The supply of houses for sale is down significantly (-17% in our area) in most areas compared with a year ago. And that is having important side impacts such as raising prices & homeowners' equity stakes and reducing total sales. Although we are seeing some increased sale prices compared to like properties, those are the exception rather than the norm as most sales are subject to appraisal and loan approval. 
 
In Nassau County, pending sales increased 39% from July '11 to July '12 for single family homes and 600% for townhouse/condo properties. In terms of actual numbers, there were 2 condos pending in 7/11 and 14 pending in 7/12, thus the 600% increase. Still, an improvement, and one the condo market was desperate to see.
The median sales price was up 39.4% to $240,000 for detached homes and 4.8% to $285,000 for attached properties. Again, more high end home are selling compared to last year, increasing that statistic, rather than increasing prices. Specifically, there were 9 sales above $1,000,000 in 2011 (January - August) and 19 for the same period in 2012.
Most striking of all is the absorption rate. The turnover rate which foretells how long a property might take to sell. Those numbers dropped a staggering 56.3% for single family homes and 23.3% for townhouse/condo units when we compare July 2011 to July 2012. 
 
Sustained recovery will not occur without real employment and wage growth. Consumers must be confident in both the economy and their family finances before signing on the dotted line. Cheap borrowing costs have served as the glue biding things together. Unimaginable a few years ago, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage recently ducked below the 3.49% marker. Job creation and GDP numbers will garner particular attention this quarter.

All data from Amelia Island - Nassau County Association of REALTORS MLS

Featured Listing

 

6 Salt Marsh Drive                       4 Bedrooms, 4 Baths $799,0000

 

 

EXCEPTIONAL VALUE IN LONG POINT ON AMELIA ISLAND PLANTATION! Spacious floor plan--three bedrooms, three and one-half baths on main level; one bedroom and bath upstairs. Large open living room with built-ins and fireplace, formal dining room. Oak floors in living areas. Great kitchen with granite countertops, lots of cabinets. Florida room overlooks deck and gorgeous private back yard. Short walk to the beach and Long Point club house.
View Virtual Tour: http://www.circlepix.com/home2/ACBJ6V

Market Update

Housing Inventory Down 65.2%

Amelia Island/Nassau County, FL – April 2012 – Home prices.  They're everyones favorite indicator, and the headlines focus almost exclusively on this one metric.  But prices leave much to be desired.  They tell little about the market's balance - whether overly saturated or in a competitive bidding environment.  Historically low mortgage rates, rising rents and strong investor activity have helped nudge certain areas and segments into stable or even seller's market territory.  Prices are already rising in some cases but it's far from universal.  At first glance, April looked pretty good but there's more to it than that.

New Listings were down 18.5% for detached homes and 38.1% for attached properties.  This is a strong reduction in inventory and helped drive the Months Supply of Inventory (inventory divided by average monthly pending sales) down 72% to 9.1 months from 32.5 months for single family homes (detached) in April 2011.  Condos also saw a reduction in turnover of 34.5% to 16.9 months from 25.8 months in April of last year.

Pending Sales increased 96.1% for single family homes and 5.6% for condominium properties.  Actual Closed Sales were down by one unit (-1.9%) but with the large jump in Pending Sales, we will see a corresponding increase in Closed Sales once they actually close.

The Median Sales Price was up 8.2% to $219,990 for detached homes and 5.4% to $195,000 for attached properties.  It's uncertain whether home prices are increasing or that more higher priced properties are selling.  In our opinion, most likely the latter.

It will be interesting to see the next report as we've seen activity skyrocket and inventory continue to shrink.  We all know the theory behind supply and demand and after so many false starts, we believe the market is finally headed back up.

All data from Amelia Island - Nassau County Association of REALTORS MLS

Featured Listing

95216 Mackinas Circle                      
5 Bedrooms, 4 Baths                    
$599,0000

Executive home in Harrison Cove at Summer Beach! Located in a sought-after gated community on the south end of Amelia Island, this home has many "Wow" features. Screened pool and heated spa, French doors leading out to a covered lanai, beautifully landscaped yard, flagstone patio, hardwood floors, California closets, plantation shutters, great floor plan--all on one level except for the bonus room. Short walk to famous Amelia Island beaches; near golf courses and other amenities. Membership to the Golf Club of Amelia Island is available.

DECEMBER 2011

There's no way to be certain what 2012 will bring. However, a few things doseem clear enough to make some assessments. First, 2011 was not the recoveryyear it was expected to be. It was yet another "transition year" for most.Second, multi-decade low mortgage rates and suppressed home prices coalesced toform an attractive purchase environment. And buyers did just what their nameimplies - they bought. This has driven down inventory levels in many locales,which - thirdly - nudged the market balance toward equilibrium. Here's how thefinal month of 2011 concluded the year.

New listings were down 20.0 percent for detached homes and 47.6 percent forattached properties. Pending Sales increased 45.8 percent for single-familyhomes but decreased 18.2 percent for townhouse-condo properties.

The Median Sales Price was up 9.5 percent to $194,950 for detached homes and142.3 percent to $375,000 for attached properties. Month Supply of Inventorydecreased 66.5 percent for single-family units and 60.1 percent fortownhouse-condo units.

Ultimately, the upcoming spring market should be a major tell about the futuredirection of housing. Sellers are seeing multiple-offer situations; buyers areseeing sub 4.0 percent loans; supply-demand trends are more balanced. When itgets down to it, that's a stable foundation and a far cry from 2009. While thefundamentals are better, the foreclosure situation and political unknownsremain wild cards. For now, enjoy the fresh canvas.

QUICK FACTS

+ 1.4% from 2010 in Closed Sales
- 58.3% from 2010 in Homes for Sale (Inventory)
+ 14.0% from 2010 in Median Sales Price

(all data courtesy of Amelia Island-Nassau County Association of Realtors)

COLDWELL BANKER THE AMELIA GROUP

2011 proved as successful and again we finished first in both listing and salesfor the entire MLS with a total of $68 million in closed sales and 15.6% of themarket. Currently, as an office, we have over $104 million in listed propertywhich is far and above any other real estate office in MLS.

On the Amelia Island Plantation, the group closed over $17.5 million in realestate in 2011 and over $16 million in 2010. Currently, the group has justunder $32 million of listed real estate on AIP, alone.

Consistently, COLDWELL BANKER, The Amelia Group ranks in the top 20 of allsimilarly sized offices over the entire United States and the top 5 in thestate of Florida.
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Spotlight Listings

6 Marsh Creek $1,749,000

This incredible golf view residence on gated Amelia Island Plantation isunsurpassed in quality and top-flight features. Designed by local architectJohn Cotner, this four bedroom, 5 and half bath home offers spacious rooms, 10,12 and 14 foot ceilings, heavy molding and trimwork, great room with custombuilt-ins, two fireplaces, library with abundant built ins, chef’s kitchen withlarge island, granite counters, top of the line appliances, walk-in pantry andbanquette seating. Of special note, the kitchen offers warming drawer, beveragerefrigerator, double ovens and water pedal for hands free faucet control. Thefirst floor master has fantastic golf views and offers stunning spa-likeretreat bath with Grohe spa heads, spa tub and granite topped vanity. Allbedrooms have en suite baths with granite vanity and tile bath/shower. Thelarge bonus room over the 3 car garage is delightfully hidden behind abookcase. The other “secret” to this custom jewel? A 13x49 foot toy garage fitfor the RV or car enthusiast.

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11 Sound Point Court $1,200,000

Southern charmer on Long Point at Amelia Island Plantation. Surrounded by lushlandscaping, live oaks and magnolias, this low-country marsh and river viewhome is the epitome of southern elegance. Situated on three levels – all withelevator access – this three bedroom, four and a half bath home offers heartpine floors, generously sized rooms, high ceilings and 10” base & heavy crownmoldings. Framed by twin staircases, the entry opens on the second level withfeatures a sitting area and three bedrooms. Master suite has his and hersbaths and closets and access to screened porch which runs length of the home.Top level is open & bright with spacious living & dining space, has stunningmarsh/ICW views, well thought out kitchen with island veggie sink, access toporch for grilling and a sunny office.

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RECENT PRICE REDUCTIONS
28 Long Point Drive $995,000 Golf View 4BR/4.5BA
22 Long Point Drive $1,120,000 Golf Views 3BR/4.5BA

To view these featured properties and all of our other listings, please visitour website at [2]www.TroxelTeam.com. For more information or to view theseproperties, please give us a call at 904.556.3228.

Gorgeous new aerial tour of Amelia Island!

Enjoy this beautifully shot 10 minute tour of Amelia Island and please share with your friends.

AMELIA Island is the place to be this spring! Not only are we an island of many flags, we are also an island of many festivals. The 2011 Festival Schedule is listed below along with their websites.

We are enjoying glorious weather and increased activity in the real estate market - Life is Good!

Market Update

The market for vacation homes, based on local sales data, appears to be improving. The comeback has been helped by the gains in the stock market and an improving economy, which have made wealthier Americans more upbeat about the future. Still, in most markets where demand has improved, prices haven't and it's too soon to break out the champagne. Prices are down over 32-40% since 2006. Buyers are looking for deals and are buying at the very low end of the product. Financing is still difficult especially for condominiums. Most banks are requiring 25%+ down and crystal clean credit.

There are qualified buyers in the market, but they are slow to make offers. Many of these buyers have cash and/or approval for a loan, but they are afraid they will lose money on their purchase. Many of these buyers will wait until they see prices rising before making an offer. Unfortunately, most will wait too long and find themselves chasing less favorable, more expensive market. The savvy buyers are the ones we are seeing re-enter the market today. For buyers who can pay cash or who qualify for loans, it's time to get back in the game.

Opportunities abound; home prices are low, mortgage rates are low, and the economy is recovering. It's good that the economy is improving; bad in that the best deals are fading away. Time is the key factor to focus on; real estate isn't about flipping. It's about getting in at a low-base price, financing at a low interest rate and holding for a reasonable amount of time. If we practice these fundamentals, positive cash flow is easier to generate(for investors) and price appreciation will likely be realized when it comes time to sell.

We are very optimistic about the future for real estate on Amelia Island. Real Estate still works. Let's focus on the opportunities this market has created!

Hope to see you this spring.

Pat & Pam

2001 Festival Schedule

• Amelia Island Film Festival Feb. 24-27
www.ameliaislandfilmfestival.com

• Concours d'Elegance March 11-13
www.ameliaconcours.org

• Old Town Bicentennial April 2
www.oldtownfernandina.org

• Isle of Eight Flags Shrimp Festival April 29-May 1
www.shrimpfestival.com

• Wild Amelia Nature Festival May 20-22
www.wildamelia.com

• Amelia Island Chamber Music Festival, May 20-June 17
www.aicmf.com

• Stars and Stripes Freedom Festival, July 4
www.shineybadges.com

• Amelia Island Blues Festival Sept 16-17
www.ameliaislandbluesfest.com

• Amelia Island Jazz Festival, Oct 2-9
www.ameliaislandjazzfestival.com

• Amelia Island Autumn Fine Arts Festival, Oct 8-9
www.islandart.org


Pat and Pam Troxel
Coldwell Banker, The Amelia Group
311 Centre Street
Fernandina Beach, Florida 32034

904-556-3228

904-556-1258

pdtroxel@msn.com (Pam)

phtroxel@msn.com (Pat)

2011

THOUGHTS FOR THE NEW YEAR

Hint: it's going to be a great one!

We want to take this opportunity to wish you all the best for the New Year! We appreciate your business and referrals and look forward to being of service to you in 2011.

We feel the economy should continue on a slowly improving path in 2011. Interest rates remain low, and there are plenty of real estate opportunities. These great values and low rates won't last forever. Interest rates have increased within the past 45 days. According to many economists and based on the supply and demand principal, the housing market will improve over the coming months, and with that improvement interest rates will rise.

In 2010 real estate sales in Nassau County were up 11% over 2009. This exceeds the national average of an 8% growth according to the National Association of Realtors. The largest and most surprising increase has been in the condo market which is up a whopping 107% over last year! We expect these trends to continue. Nearly 50% of these overall sales in 2010 were distressed sales(short sales/foreclosures/bank owned).

There is always some degree of uncertainty in the market. Many of us have not recovered emotionally from the financial crisis, even though some of our investments have rebounded. While sitting on the sidelines may seem safer, we may miss once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.

All the best in 2011!

Pat and Pam